(Updated: November 3, 2025 (originally published October 29, 2025)
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)
The Knoxville 9-County Functional Region faces moderate to high socioeconomic risk if the federal shutdown continues.
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SNAP: About 72,000 residents (7.8 %) depend on food benefits—roughly $15 million in monthly spending now at risk. On the afternoon of November 3, the Trump administration announced that it would use $4.65 billion from a contingency fund to cover about half of the usual benefits however there may be delays in the distribution.
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LIHEAP: Energy-assistance funds are on hold pending federal release, threatening winter heating stability for low-income households.
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High-vulnerability counties: Campbell, Union, Morgan, and Grainger show 10–17 % SNAP reliance and limited access to alternate support.
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Knox County holds the largest caseload, meaning food banks and service agencies there will see the sharpest demand surge.
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WIC: Roughly 35 % of children under five rely on WIC nutrition support. In Union, Grainger, and Campbell, dependency exceeds 40–55 %, amplifying early-childhood nutrition risk if federal aid lapses.
- Head Start: Roughly 1,800 to 2,200 children and on the order of 120-180 staff associated with Head Start/EHS programs could be impacted if the shutdown progresses.
Bottom line:
If the shutdown persists beyond the next benefit cycle, food and energy insecurity will intensify quickly in rural counties and strain urban aid networks centered in Knoxville.
Overview
This report summarizes socioeconomic vulnerability across the Knoxville 9‑county functional region (Anderson, Blount, Campbell, Grainger, Knox, Loudon, Morgan, Roane, Union) with a focus on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), the Low‑Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), and Head Start. It is tailored for emergency‑management & mutual aid group planning amid the ongoing federal shutdown. If you would like a risk assessment specific to your organization please contact us.
Section 1 – Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)
As of September 2025, approximately 72,378 individuals across the 9‑county region rely on SNAP (~7.8% of the population). If November benefits are delayed or halted, the region could lose about $15 million in direct monthly food purchasing power (≈$21–22 million with multiplier effects).
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