The chart shows SNAP dependency rates by county along with emergency‑management risk ratings. High‑risk counties by SNAP dependency include Campbell, Grainger, Morgan, and Union. Knox County, while moderate by percentage, has the largest absolute caseload, implying significant surge demand for food assistance if benefits lapse.

On November 3, 2025 a variety of food banks are reporting they are taking steps to increase their supply while already seeing an uptick in recipients.  Second Harvest Food bank of East Tennessee implemented their emergency plan while City Hills Church in West Knoxville reported that they served 3 times more recipients over the last week.

Section 2 – Low‑Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP)

LIHEAP provides seasonal energy assistance via the Tennessee Housing Development Agency (THDA) and local partners such as CAC (Knox), ETHRA (Anderson/Union), MECAA (Loudon/Roane), and BCCAA (Blount). Applications open in early November; October payments are not being made. Due to the federal shutdown, Tennessee’s 2026 LIHEAP award cannot be released until federal funds are authorized, so many applications may be waitlisted with crisis cases prioritized.

LIHEAP benefits typically range from $174–$750 per household, critical for winter heating stability. Delays increase risk of utility shutoffs and unsafe heating practices and can compound SNAP‑related food insecurity.

Section 3 – Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC)

The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) provides nutritional support, breastfeeding counseling, and access to specific food packages for pregnant and postpartum women, infants, and children under age five.  In the Knoxville 9-County Functional Region, WIC remains fully operational under contingency funding, but the federal shutdown places that continuity at risk if national reserves are depleted before November allocations.

Section 4 – Head Start

Head Start and Early Head Start are federally funded programs administered through the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Administration for Children & Families (ACF).  They provide early-childhood education, nutrition, health, and family support services for low-income children (birth to age 5).  In Tennessee, Head Start is delivered via 26 local grantees, including Knoxville-Knox County Head Start, Douglas-Cherokee Economic Authority, Blount County Children’s Center, and Mid-East Community Action Agency (serving Anderson, Loudon, Roane, and adjacent counties).

Head Start programs operate on grant periods that vary by region, so some programs remain funded through later in the year, while others are directly affected now.  HHS/ACF confirmed that about one-third of Head Start programs nationwide could face funding disruption if the shutdown extends beyond mid-November 2025, as continuing resolutions lapse.  Programs whose grants renew in October or November are most at risk of temporary closures, furloughs, or service reductions.

As of November 3, 2025, Tennessee Head Start centers remain open, operating on prior-year or continuing-resolution funds.  Several grantees—including Knoxville-Knox County Head Start (KCEOC) and Douglas-Cherokee Economic Authority—have publicly stated they can sustain operations for 2–3 weeks without new funding authorization, while others have stated they will suspend operations as early as this week.

Based on publicly available across numerous websites it is estimated that 1,800 to 2,200 children and 120-280 staff could be impacted.  If the shutdown persists beyond mid-to-late November, local programs will need bridge funding or state intervention to continue payroll, transportation, and meal services.  Early Head Start (birth-to-3) programs face the most immediate risk since they depend more heavily on continuous daily operations and year-round funding.  Since programs provide two meals per day; any closure directly increases local food-bank demand.  There will also be employment impacts and a childcare ripple effect which will reduce workforce stability.

Summary

Overall regional vulnerability is Moderate, with High risk concentrated in Campbell, Union, Morgan, and Grainger.  Key takeaways are:

• Most likely scenario: temporary hardship and scattered unrest, not sustained violence.
• Highest risk windows: first 7–10 days of missed SNAP disbursement or visible fuel/utility price spikes.
• Most effective mitigation: proactive local coordination, transparent information flow, and calm, visible community presence.

Emergency Management & Support Organization Recommendations

Agencies and organizations should:

• pre‑stage mass‑care resources in high‑risk counties
• coordinate with utility providers on shutoff protections
• expand food‑assistance capacity in Knox County to absorb surge demand if federal benefits lapse.

Mutual Assistance Group & Resident Preparedness Recommendations

Mutual Assistance Groups and residents should:

• maintain situational awareness by collecting information from official/trusted sources
• share eyewitness reports using redundant communication methods
• continue to ensure that appropriate food, supplies, and water are stored/rotated to reduce dependence on the retail supply chain
• avoid accessing grocery stores that serve large SNAP populations during peak times
• check on vulnerable members of their community to determine what resources could be utilized to mitigate impacts

Appendix A: SNAP Risk Definitions

Appendix B: SNAP Vulnerability Risk Matrix by County

Appendix C: WIC Vulnerability Risk Matrix by County

References and Data Sources

Primary Data Sources

Tennessee Department of Human Services (TDHS) – SNAP Program

Tennessee SNAP Statistical Reports (September 2025). County-level participation data: individuals, households, and monthly issuance for Anderson, Blount, Knox, Loudon, and Union Counties.

https://www.tn.gov/humanservices → Public Reports → Family Assistance → SNAP Statistical Information.

U.S. Census Bureau – Vintage 2024 Population Estimates

County-level population estimates used to calculate SNAP participation percentages.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-counties-total.html

Tennessee Housing Development Agency (THDA) – LIHEAP

Program overview, partner-agency directory, and benefit range ($174–$750).

https://thda.org/help-for-homeowners/low-income-home-energy-assistance-program-liheap

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) / Administration for Children & Families (ACF)

• LIHEAP Performance Management System – State Profile: Tennessee FY 2024–2025

https://liheappm.acf.gov

• Low-Income Household Water Assistance Program (LIHWAP) – FY 2022 Tennessee Profile; confirms March 2024 program sunset.

https://acf.gov/ocs/programs/lihwap

Tennessee Emergency Management Agency (TEMA) Region 2 / ReadyTN

Regional coordination framework and public guidance on preparedness under funding interruption.

https://www.tn.gov/tema

Tennessee WIC Participation by County (KIDS COUNT / Annie E. Casey Foundation)

Statistics on children, youth and families in Tennessee from the Annie E. Casey Foundation and the Tennessee Commission on Children and Youth.  Latest dataset is from 2023.

https://datacenter.aecf.org/data/tables/2999-infants-and-children-receiving-benefits-from-women-infant-and-children-wic-program#detailed/2/any/false/2545,1095,2048,574,1729,37,871,870,573,869/any/13222,10115

“Head Start programs begin to close as funding ends during …” — by CBS News

Reporting about the operational risk of over 140 Head Start programs losing funding if the shutdown persists.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/head-start-closures-government-shutdown/

“Head Start education program in jaws of US government shutdown” — by Reuters

Reporting about 65,000 children in 41 states face interruption of Head Start services as grants expire.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-government-shutdown-threatens-shutter-head-start-child-programs-2025-10-30/

Knoxville VOAD Partner Agencies

Local energy- and utility-assistance providers: Knoxville–Knox County CAC, ETHRA, BCCAA, and MECAA.

• CAC – https://www.knoxcac.org

• ETHRA – https://www.ethra.org

• MECAA – https://www.mecaa.net

Secondary / Supporting Sources

OMB Bulletin 23-01 – Defines official Knoxville MSA counties (Anderson, Blount, Knox, Loudon, Union).

East Tennessee Development District (ETDD) Regional Plans (2024) – Defines 9-county functional region.

Second Harvest Food Bank of East Tennessee – 2025 press statements on projected food-pantry demand.

Local Media Reporting

• Knox News Sentinel – “SNAP, energy-aid delays affect East Tennessee families,” Oct 2025.

• WBIR / WVLT – “LIHEAP applications delayed statewide amid shutdown,” Oct 2025.

• Oak Ridger / Daily Times (Maryville) – coverage of “No Kings 2” demonstrations.

Analytical / Derived Data

SNAP

All quantitative estimates generated for SNAP were completed by using the following formula:

SNAP Rate% = (SNAP Individuals divided by County Population) X 100

Risk-Rating Categories

Risk-rating categories were adapted from FEMA/NIMS Community Lifelines vulnerability tiers:

• Low ≤ 5 % | Moderate 5.1 – 10 % | High 10.1 – 20 % | Severe > 20 %

Head Start

• Tennessee Headcount: Per HHS/Headstart.gov there are approximately 16,700 children (Head Start + Early Head Start) funded.

• Knoxville–Knox County Head Start: 510 Head Start + 184 Early Head Start = 694 children served, ~120 staff — per 2024–25 annual report.

• Typical staff-to-child ratio: 1:10 to 1:15 depending on age and classroom size.  Younger children have higher staff ratios.

• Regional share: The nine-county Knoxville functional region (Anderson, Blount, Campbell, Grainger, Knox, Loudon, Morgan, Roane, Union) represents roughly 10–15 percent of Tennessee’s population and Head Start footprint.